The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission

摘要: In a recent letter, Ricke and Caldeira (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 124002) estimated that the timing between an emission maximum temperature response is decade on average. their analysis, they took into account uncertainties about carbon cycle, rate of ocean heat uptake climate sensitivity but did not consider one important uncertainty: size emission. Using simulations with Earth System Model we show time lag dioxide (CO2) pulse warming increases for larger pulses. Our results suggest as CO2 accumulates in atmosphere, full effect may be felt several decades, if centuries. Most warming, however, will emerge relatively quickly, implying cuts only benefit subsequent generations also generation implementing those cuts.