Probabilistic transmission expansion planning considering risk of cascading transmission line failures

摘要: SUMMARY Recent studies have shown that power system blackouts occur much more likely than might be expected, and their probability distribution follows law. Cascading outages been reported as the major cause of large blackouts; therefore, risk cascading is significant should considered in operating planning assessments systems. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Power Systems Engineering Research Center University Alaska (OPA) a model developed on basis self-organized criticality to study transmission lines. In this paper, modified version OPA used for considering line expansion planning. proposed method finds set effective candidate lines having higher capability suppressing outages; then, original exploited over horizon analyze long-term reliability system. benefit each prospective derived by following two innovations calculating blackouts: (i) law finding (ii) nonlinear estimation cost blackouts. Accordingly, savings associated calculated. These values are find optimal plan using benefit/cost analysis. Two IEEE test systems investigated examine applicability scalability method. investigations revealed provides scenarios, which entail considerable saving society. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.