Mortalidade por câncer de mama nos estados do nordeste do brasil: tendências atuais e projeções até 2030

摘要: Objective: To analyze time trends in mortality from breast cancer the states of northeastern Brazil period 1996-2010 and project for 2011 to 2030 period. Methods: Ecological series study, using data on deaths (Mortality Information System) demographic base (Brazilian Institute Geography Statistics). Analysis by Joinpoint regression Nordpred calculating projections. Results: From 1996 2010, Pernambuco Ceara had highest rates cancer. The analysis found significant increase all northeast Brazil, especially Piaui (APC = 9.7%, 95% CI 8.1 - 11.4 p <0.01) Paraiba 9.1%, 7.0 -11.3 <0.01). Rio Grande do Norte state presented occurrence 1999, a trend stability 6.6% per year). projection year 2030, greatest variations are observed Maranhao, Alagoas. projected numbers will be explained most variation risk death. Conclusions: showed strong upward trend, with large increases which makes it essential structuring promotion, surveillance health care this disease region.