Distribution models for the amphibian chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Costa Rica: proposing climatic refuges as a conservation tool

摘要: Aim: We use novel data on the occurrence of amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Costa Rica to model its potential distribution that country. Location: Lowland and montane areas Rica. Methods: published new presence B. 647 amphibians (35 species). Screening was performed through histological techniques by which 156 sites were surveyed. Of these, 21 found have chytrid. Maxent, a presence-only modelling technique, used create 100 predictions occurrence, most accurate 10 (based area under receiver-operating characteristic curve) chosen composite model. This approach increased confidence predictions, distinguishing high probability low variability across runs (higher confidence) from those with but (lower confidence). Results: Predicted patterns not uniform along Rica's mountains, where declines occurred. The pathogen predicted occur greater Caribbean slopes than Pacific slopes. While temperature seems constrain pathogen, also small amounts rainfall during driest period year occurrence. Main conclusions: predicts Santa Elena Peninsula Central Valley probabilities suggesting they could function as refuges for amphibians. In such refugial areas, one expect be absent, or present abundance (rendering an epidemic outbreak chytridiomycosis unlikely). Craugastor ranoides, belongs group frogs particularly sensitive outbreaks, persists hot seasonally dry disappeared nearby colder more humid Guanacaste Volcanic Chain. information suggests climatic refuges, environmental conditions prevent disease important component conservation.