Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

摘要: Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which intimately linked climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on physical environment salmon in Pacific Northwest and discuss potential evolutionary consequences these changes, with particular reference Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) sockeye nerka) salmon. possible responses migration spawning date egg juvenile growth development rates, thermal tolerance, disease resistance. know little about ocean pathways, so cannot confidently suggest changes this stage. Climate might produce conflicting selection pressures different stages, will interact plastic (i.e. nongenetic) various ways. To clarify interactions, we present a conceptual model how changing conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through responses, phenotype distributions, affecting force selection. Our predictions tentative because lack data strength selection, heritability, ecological genetic linkages among many traits discussed here. Despite challenges involved experimental manipulation species complex histories, such research is essential for full appreciation biological effects change.