Updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios

摘要: Abstract A dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term scenarios. Although the need to update scenarios decision-making is recognized, a structured way executing this process remains unclear. To configure solution, we propose two concepts that be introduced: 1) consist of multi-layered structure, 2) changes should classified according their impact uncertainty. Based on classification, are incorporated into different distinguished layers. apply these during an update, paper presents framework structurally incorporate new information uncertainties scenarios, keeping them up-to-date while guaranteeing remain realistic useful. The applied test case consisting three describing European power market illustrate how performs in practical context. Electric Vehicles chosen as uncertainty changes. Results show using allows complexity simplified step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating common language understanding if changing external within