Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections

摘要: One mystery of U.S. politics is why the president’s party regularly loses congressional seats at midterm. Although presidential coattails and their withdrawal provide a partial explanation, cannot account for fact that typically performs worse than normal This paper addresses midterm vote separate from year vote, with evidence generic polls conducted during election years. Polls early in project result November. But as campaign progresses, preferences almost always move toward out party. shift not negative referendum on president, midterms do show pattern declining popularity or increasing salience performance. The accords “balance” theory, where motivates some to against president order achieve policy moderation.