Dynamic probabilistic simulation of dairy herd management practices. I. Model description and outcome of different seasonal calving patterns
作者： A.W Jalvingh , J.A.M van Arendonk , A.A Dijkhuizen
DOI: 10.1016/0301-6226(93)90067-R
关键词: Mathematics 、 Outcome (game theory) 、 Ice calving 、 Probabilistic simulation 、 Animal science 、 Statistical model 、 Herd 、 Model description 、 Statistics 、 Markov chain 、 Dairy cattle
摘要: A dynamic probabilistic model has been designed to determine the technical and economic consequences of various biological variables management strategies concerning reproduction, replacement calving patterns in dairy herds. The Markov chain approach is used simulate herd dynamics. Herds are described terms states animals can be possible transitions between states. corresponding transition probabilities derived from input values strategies. property calculating easily structure at equilibrium (steady state). Sets evaluated by comparing results herds equilibrium. Moreover, dynamics studied over a period time gain insight into how reached. Input modified farm-specific. compare different under circumstances. Results for Dutch conditions show that it most profitable have calvings concentrated autumn.
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