Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time

摘要: Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us ask: Is seeing believing? We approach perception by attending two components of overall perception: probability an event occurring consequences if occurs. Using a two-period longitudinal data set collected from survey homeowners living in fire-prone area Colorado, we find that study participants’ initial high levels wildfire did not change substantially after extreme events the intervening years. More specifically, changed very little, whereas went up bit. In addition, models perceptions show are correlated with somewhat different factors, experience is found be one strongest correlates risk. These results reflect importance distinguishing modeling them separately facilitate additional insights into complexities perceptions, factors related risk, over time.