Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change

摘要: Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Mongolian grasslands (MG), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist lifestyle. Here, we conducted a grid-scale (0.5◦ × 0.5◦) probabilistic risk assessment MG under climate for 40 years (1976-2015) based on probability theory. We evaluated changes (impacts) vulnerability drought between recent two decades R20 = 1996-2015 previous P20 1976-1995. The quantified as product hazardous vulnerability. defined from Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability expected differences key variables with without conditions. are productivity (peak aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, leaf area index) root-zone plant-available soil moisture, simulated process-based vegetation model Organizing Carbon Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management validated field observations biomass moisture. Results reveal experienced more frequent droughts rapid warming slight drying during aggravated by ever-increasing grazing intensity (34% compared P20), resulted reduction water availability grassland particularly northeastern areas (20%-65%). increased 10% over extended areas, northcentral northeast Mongolia. was mainly caused change-induced and, lesser extent, increasing Recent modify grasslands, Mongolia, suggesting these regions need strategic management both adaptation conservation cope impacts.