System Models for Policy Analysis

摘要: Although quantitative system models are only one of many tools a policy analyst, they an important tool. For the purpose building and using is to estimate things that cannot be observed or measured directly. The prime example impact assessment—estimating outcomes decisionmaker may consider adopting. Other uses diagnosis (estimating what factors have greatest leverage change specified outcome primary source given outcome) forecasting how variable likely evolve in future, usually assuming “present trends”). They also used as learning (to gain understanding works, work future).