Land Use–Transportation Scenarios and Future Vehicle Travel and Land Consumption: A Meta-Analysis

摘要: Problem: Since the late 1980s, U.S. metropolitan regions have increasingly engaged in a style of land use–transportation scenario planning that merges techniques borrowed from military and business strategic with long-range transportation systems project-level alternatives analysis. Aside occasional anecdotal descriptions, effectiveness such approaches generating compact growth plans has not been evaluated comprehensively. Purpose: We analyzed wide range studies to determine how far scenarios are predicted reduce vehicular travel below existing trends. Methods: Using hierarchical modeling, we developed regional vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) model based on 85 23 18 areas. Results conclusions: coefficients this model, conservatively estimate VMT 2050 by 17% assuming continuation Takeaway ...