Exploration of expansion patterns and prediction of urban growth for Colombo City, Sri Lanka
作者： Go Yonezawa , Venkatesh Raghavan , Pavithra Jayasinghe
DOI: 10.1007/S41324-020-00364-4
关键词: Urban structure 、 Urban sprawl 、 Environmental resource management 、 Land cover 、 Geography 、 Sustainable development 、 Multilevel model 、 Futures contract 、 Infill 、 Development plan
摘要: This study attempts to analyze and simulate urban growth pattern of Colombo city in Sri Lanka which is a dynamic rapid urbanizing region. The spatiotemporal patterns during 1997–2019 were first analyzed by comparing Land Cover (LC) maps for time intervals between 1997–2008 2008–2019 using intensity analysis. Urban lands have grown faster rate as compared period. prominent spatial expansion outlying, opposed edge predominant 2008–2019. These major modeled predict the future structure 2030 FUTURES (FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation) model. patch-based, multilevel modeling framework simulating emergence landscape regions. Simulated result generated from model reveals substantial agreement with real ground changes showing kappa value 0.78. allows three different scenarios, namely Business Usual, Infill Growth Sprawl over 100 km2 increase 2030. Predicted was then proposed development plan. With certain limitations arising available data, effective predicting possible scenarios providing valuable inputs support better decision making sustainable city. results demonstrated this would be useful modelling other cities further validate efficacy workflow.
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