Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America

摘要: Climate change can influence the geographical range of ecological niche pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) maximum entropy (MaxEnt), or without topographical variables. Potential shifts transmission Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) analysed 2050 2070 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 RCP 8.5. There no significant quantitative differences between GARP MaxEnt models, but models best represented known most [partial-receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an variable contributing to model (ENM). little difference breadth projections 8.5; majority shifted significantly both periods. Those greatest current distribution are expected have shifts. Positional changes centroid, although reduced species, associated latitude. A increase decrease mean is principally Neotropical 1 species. impact climate will be specific each its biogeographical region American triatomines ranges (Nearctic 2 Nearctic/Neotropical) future Significant (increases decreases) over time projected broadest distributions. Changes vector exposure threat human population periods, a 1.48% urban populations 1.76% rural 2050.