National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation

作者: Mark S. Bebbington , Mark W. Stirling , Shane Cronin , Ting Wang , Gill Jolly

DOI: 10.1007/S00445-018-1230-4

关键词: National levelExpert elicitationHazardVolcanoTerm (time)AndesiteGeologyPhysical geographyMagnitude (mathematics)Volcanic hazards

摘要: Volcanic hazard estimation is becoming increasingly quantitative, creating the potential for land-use decisions and engineering design to use volcanic information in an analogous …

参考文章(80)
Koji Kiyosugi, C. B. Connor, D. Zhao, L. J. Connor, K. Tanaka, Relationships between Volcano Distribution, Crustal Structure, and P-wave Tomography: An Example from the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, SW Japan Bulletin of Volcanology. ,vol. 72, pp. 331- 340 ,(2010) , 10.1007/S00445-009-0316-4
Mark Bebbington, Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. ,vol. 175, pp. 325- 333 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.JVOLGEORES.2008.03.013
Erik W. Klemetti, Chad D. Deering, Kari M. Cooper, Sarah M. Roeske, Magmatic perturbations in the Okataina Volcanic Complex, New Zealand at thousand-year timescales recorded in single zircon crystals Earth and Planetary Science Letters. ,vol. 305, pp. 185- 194 ,(2011) , 10.1016/J.EPSL.2011.02.054
Melody G Runge, Mark S Bebbington, Shane J Cronin, Jan M Lindsay, Catherine L Kenedi, Mohammed Rashad H Moufti, None, Vents to events: determining an eruption event record from volcanic vent structures for the Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia Bulletin of Volcanology. ,vol. 76, pp. 804- ,(2014) , 10.1007/S00445-014-0804-Z
Roger M. Cooke, Louis L.H.J. Goossens, TU Delft expert judgment data base Reliability Engineering & System Safety. ,vol. 93, pp. 657- 674 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.RESS.2007.03.005
Mark Bebbington, Shane J Cronin, Ian Chapman, Michael B Turner, None, Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. ,vol. 177, pp. 1055- 1062 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.JVOLGEORES.2008.07.023
Anke V Zernack, Shane J Cronin, Mark S Bebbington, Richard C Price, Ian EM Smith, Robert B Stewart, Jonathan N Procter, None, Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse: A model based on Mount Taranaki, New Zealand Geology. ,vol. 40, pp. 983- 986 ,(2012) , 10.1130/G33277.1
Michael B Turner, Mark S Bebbington, Shane J Cronin, Robert B Stewart, None, Merging eruption datasets: building an integrated Holocene eruptive record for Mt Taranaki, New Zealand Bulletin of Volcanology. ,vol. 71, pp. 903- 918 ,(2009) , 10.1007/S00445-009-0274-X
W.P. Aspinall, G. Woo, B. Voight, P.J. Baxter, Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. ,vol. 128, pp. 273- 285 ,(2003) , 10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00260-9
Warner Marzocchi, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting Bulletin of Volcanology. ,vol. 70, pp. 623- 632 ,(2008) , 10.1007/S00445-007-0157-Y