Development of a Prognostic Prediction Model to Determine Severe Dengue in Children.

摘要: To develop a prognostic prediction model using the seven warning signs highlighted by WHO revised Dengue fever classification 2009 to determine severe dengue in children. In this prospective analytical study conducted tertiary care centre, consecutive sampling of all children aged 1mo 12y admitted with serologically confirmed was done from May 2015 through August 2016. After excluding 27 patients co-infections and co-morbidities, 359 were followed up daily assess clinical laboratory progression till discharge/ death. Independent predictors abdominal pain or tenderness, persistent vomiting, lethargy, mucosal bleed, fluid accumulation, hepatomegaly >2 cm rising hematocrit concurrent platelet count <100 × 109/L. Outcome measure defined as per guidelines 2009. Among children, 93 progressed dengue. univariate analysis, significant accumulation (OR 4.773, p = 0.000, 95%CI 2.511–9.075), vomiting 1.944, p = 0.010, 1.170–3.225), bleed 2.045, p = 0.019, 1.127–3.711) ≥0.40 <100 × 109/L 2.985, 1.783–4.997). The final multivariable included (aOR 3.717, 1.901–7.269), 2.252, p = 0.004, 1.302–3.894) (p = 0.056) signs, suggested present include