Oil and natural gas prospects in South America: Can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in Brazil?

摘要: Abstract A large share of Brazil's current investments is concentrated in the development petroleum resources new frontiers. Perspectives for offshore pre-salt fields are particularly good. However, challenges also huge. On one hand, will draw vast amounts economic and human pose significant macroeconomic risks. other industry can generate multiplicative effects into country's economy and, even more importantly, rents that be diverted towards promotion renewable energy sources. This paper simulates rent generation up to 2030 according to: fiscal regime, projections supply a probability analysis Brent price evolution, assesses how these resources, if properly allocated, pave way an increased use renewables Brazil. Findings show ambitious innovation program based on target-oriented agency plus solar would cost less than half minimum average annual free investing between 2013 2030. The remaining budget could improve security ethanol fuel supply, by avoiding negative impacts sugar prices spikes production.