Quantifying the severity of hurricanes on extinction probabilities of a primate population: Insights into “Island” extirpations

摘要: Long-term studies quantifying impacts of hurricane activity on growth and trajectory primate populations are rare. Using a 14-year monitored population Alouatta palliata mexicana as study system, we developed modeling framework to assess the relative contribution disturbance two types human impacts, habitat loss, hunting, quasi-extinction risk. We found that scenario with highest level generated 21% increase in risk by 40 years compared scenarios intermediate disturbance, around 67% low scenarios. also probability reaching due alone was below 1% years, although such reduced size 70%, whereas ranged between 3% 65% for different severity alone, absence impacts. Our analysis moreover driven hunting significantly lower than posed human-driven loss disturbance. These models suggest has potential exceed and, particular, substantially speed extinction vortex hunting. Early mitigation constituted best method reducing risk: earlier is halted, less vulnerable becomes By using well-studied A. p. mexicana, help understand demographic extreme environmental can trigger isolated taxa already endangered other systems where long-term data not available. For those experiencing heavy anthropogenic pressure lacking sufficiently evolved coping strategies against unpredictable be exacerbated. Am. J. Primatol. 77:786–800, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.