Potential for mitigating greenhouse gases through expanding public transport services: A case study for Gauteng Province, South Africa

摘要: Abstract South Africa’s Province of Gauteng is a fast growing megacity region including the cities Johannesburg and Tshwane. Increasing population prosperity lead to steadily energy demand thereby increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One third province’s final consumption comes from transport sector, dominated by motorized individual transport. Due limited financial resources fund public initiatives, most cost-effective means reach GHG mitigation targets are intended, without jeopardizing economic growth. Recently, bus rapid transit (BRT) system (Rea Vaya) rail link (Gautrain) have been introduced enforce system. In this paper, we investigate planned possible future network expansions BRT Gautrain in terms performance, costs potential. Based on trip rate model, show that extensions current can increase passenger numbers significantly (between 320% 660% between 2013 2040 depending framework conditions). However, despite these expansions, modal share total passenger-kilometres travelled remains below 4% until 2040. This results decrease cumulated emissions less than 1% relatively high (4948–30045 ZAR2013/t CO2e). Nevertheless, better integration all systems attractiveness services, which result higher shift private cars reductions at lower costs.