Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment : choice between fossil- and biofuels

作者: Pauli Murto , Gjermund Nese

DOI:

关键词: Investment (macroeconomics)EconomicsReturn on investmentPrice riskFossil fuelBiofuelEnergy investmentBiomassProduction (economics)Microeconomics

摘要: We consider energy investment, when a choice has to be made between fossil fuel and biomass fired production technologies. A dynamic model is presented illustrate the effect of different degrees input price uncertainty on technology timing investment. It shown that irreversible, it may optimal postpone investment even if would otherwise invest in one or both plant types. provide numerical example based cost

参考文章(12)
Robert L. McDonald, Daniel R. Siegel, Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There is an Option to Shut Down International Economic Review. ,vol. 26, pp. 331- 349 ,(1985) , 10.2307/2526587
John C. Cox, Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Stephen A. Ross, AN INTERTEMPORAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF ASSET PRICES Econometrica. ,vol. 53, pp. 363- 384 ,(1985) , 10.2307/1911241
Fridrik M. Baldursson, Ioannis Karatzas, Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium Finance and Stochastics. ,vol. 1, pp. 69- 89 ,(1996) , 10.1007/S007800050017
Robert S. Pindyck, Avinash K. Dixit, Investment Under Uncertainty ,(1994)
Nalin Kulatilaka, The value of flexibility: The case of a dual-fuel industrial steam boiler Financial Management. ,vol. 22, pp. 271- 280 ,(1993) , 10.2307/3665944
David Laughton, The Management of Flexibility in the Upstream Petroleum Industry The Energy Journal. ,vol. 19, pp. 83- 114 ,(1998) , 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VOL19-NO1-4
J. V. Leahy, Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior Quarterly Journal of Economics. ,vol. 108, pp. 1105- 1133 ,(1993) , 10.2307/2118461
Malcolm P. Baker, E. Scott Mayfield, John E. Parsons, Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods The Energy Journal. ,vol. 19, pp. 115- 148 ,(1998) , 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VOL19-NO1-5