Navigating Mental Models of Risk and Uncertainty within the Ocean Forecast System: An Oregon Case Study.

摘要: This case study explores how to add value regional ocean condition forecast information by bringing awareness the processes that govern decision-making and outcomes within system. A modified mental models research approach is applied examine differences similarities in perceptions of risk comfort with uncertainty between two interdependent communities, "data provider" "end user," these impact accessibility usefulness data products. In this study, providers are academic agency scientists from institutions provide forecasts public end users (n = 17). End members Oregon commercial-fishing community 16). Comparisons reveal key related nature each profession scale time space ways cumulative intersecting risks uncertainties act as drivers decision-making. Implications for expanding current understanding produced used include 1) highlighting optimizing delivery tools based on end-user needs information-seeking already place, 2) identifying structural cultural barriers data-provider network prevent them doing so, 3) demonstrating learning about both producers scientific suggesting potential structure cooperation strengthen relationships working toward a common desired outcome.