The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP

摘要: The Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility the grid connection compared other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed role of (REs) in future sector using results from model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) varying emission reduction targets key technological conditions across scenarios. considered uncertainties for capital costs solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, batteries addition availability nuclear carbon dioxide capture storage. show that REs supply more than 40% electricity most technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% 2050. (excluding assume continuous growth and/or abundant domestic biomass carbon-free hydrogen) median VRE shares reach 52.2% 2050 scenario. On contrary, newly constructed power, affordable biomass, hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs 20%. policy were much sensitive resource potential battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while doubled resulted a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase cost, halved reduced 8.7% total cost. These imply lowering would be effective achieving long-term target considering current high costs.