Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany - winter season.

摘要: Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate in particular. The study area is Black Forest mountainous region south-west Germany, which well known for its tourist recreational assets. model projections 2021–2050 period based REMO-UBA simulations with high spatial resolution 10 km compared 30-year reference (1971–2000) using IPCC emission scenarios A1B B1. results show that mean winter air temperature increase by up 1.8°C, most pronounced warming seasons. annual precipitation amount marginally 5% scenario 10% B1 scenario. Winter contributes about (A1B) 30% (B1) variations precipitation. Although slightly, snow days affecting skiing be reduced average approximately 40% due regional warming. Cold stress 25%. result thermal environment advanced, warmer winters likely lead upward altitudinal shift ski resorts sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated nature conservation.