A model integrating longshore and cross‐shore processes for predicting long‐term shoreline response to climate change

摘要: We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is transect-based, one-line that predicts short-term long-term response to climate in the 21st century. proposed represents novel, modular synthesis of process-based models coastline evolution due longshore cross-shore transport by waves sea level rise. Additionally, uses an extended Kalman filter data assimilation historical positions improve estimates parameters thereby confidence predictions. apply simulate sandy along 500 km Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures beach settings variably backed dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, urban infrastructure, providing applicability virtually any setting. Aided assimilation, able reproduce observed signal seasonal hindcast period 1995–2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled states. skill during improves model's predictive capability when applied forecast (2010–2100) driven GCM-projected wave conditions. Predictions with limited human intervention indicate 31% 67% California beaches may become completely eroded 2100 under rise scenarios 0.93 2.0 m.