Detecting state changes for ecosystem conservation with long-term monitoring of species composition

摘要: Effective conservation requires an understanding not only of contemporary vegetation distributions in the landscape, but also cognizance transitions over time with goal maintaining persistence all states within landscape. Using a state and transition model framework, we investigated temporal 31 years species composition among five upland swamp communities southeastern Australia. We applied fuzzy clustering to document across communities; evaluated resilience resistance change; explored relationship between ecosystem major environmental factors posited structure system. predictive ability established dynamics model. found that community remained stable or underwent reversible directional depending on type. Wetter (Ti-tree thicket Cyperoid heath) were more (i.e., resistant) while drier showed greater propensity had lower resistance) under observed disturbance regime (low variance fire intervals). The differed this regime, Banksia showing compositional change, Restioid heath Sedgeland change. In accord conceptual model, distributed along hydrological gradient. addition, structure, light penetration ground level, differentiated communities. However, internal complex: differences (penultimate interval 2014 number fires since 1965) unable predict membership sites. Aspects are expected be important predictors if intervals vary strongly sites future. Fuzzy data allows managers track facilitates planned interventions for purposes.