Belief Networks: A Framework for the Participatory Development of Natural Resource Management Strategies

摘要: Successful long-term management of natural resources requires the development strategies which recognise constraints pertaining to environmental system and can therefore be realistically expected work. This paper presents a new technique for strategy formulation using belief networks, framework based on Bayesian probability calculus that supports investigation complex systems by user analysis all constraints. While mathematical in nature, networks are superficially simple allow concepts expressed terms with wide range will familiar. offers participatory approach through consideration impact potential options consequent benefits implementation.