Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data.

摘要: Natural ecosystems have developed within ranges of conditions that can serve as references for setting conservation targets or assessing the current ecological integrity managed ecosystems. Because their climate determinism, forest fires are likely to consequences could exacerbate biophysical and socioeconomical vulnerabilities in context change. We evaluated future trends fire activity under change eastern Canadian boreal investigated whether these changes were included variability observed during last 7000 years from sedimentary charcoal records three lakes. Prediction annual area burned was made using simulated Monthly Drought Code data collected an ensemble 19 global model experiments. The increase burn rate is predicted end 21st century (0.45% year–1 with 95% confidence interval (0.32, 0.59) falls well long‐term past (0.37 0.90% year–1). Although our results suggest rates per se will not move this ecosystem new conditions, effects increasing incidence cumulated clear‐cutting other low‐retention types harvesting, which still prevail region, remain preoccupying.