An Econometric Modelling and Prediction of the Pattern of Corporate Failure in Periods of Financial and Currency Crisis: A Conceptual Analysis on the Asian Continents

摘要: Exchange rate misalignment (which is a prelude to financial crisis), macroeconomic volatility, linear and non-linear exchange exposure, crisis, contagion spillovers are key vices that often pose significant threats corporate survival. In view of this, this paper shows how the 1966 failure models failed reflect challenges 21st century's economic dynamics experiences failure, particularly in Asia. The exposes weakness makes case for need more cogent can parsimoniously capture lingering untamable systematic risks an economy. To do we argue there chicken egg relationship between range crisis indicators order determine if failures be efficiently predicted by ratios or exogenously induced catastrophic factors. We applying teaching philosophy concept catastrophe theory. result our theoretical conceptual analysis indicates modern prediction not able rely on ordinary ratio. As recommend establish procedure ex ante econometric estimation model has generally encompassing features relevant during incoming crisis.