Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

作者: Stephen G. Willis , Dave G. Hole , Yvonne C. Collingham , Geoff Hilton , Carsten Rahbek

DOI: 10.1007/S00267-008-9125-3

关键词: Vulnerable speciesEnvironmental scienceBiodiversityEnvironmental resource managementImportant Bird AreaProtected areaClimate changeHabitat destructionGlobal warmingHabitat

摘要: Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There very real species, arising from the need shift their ranges in track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network series sites designed conserve avian diversity face current threats factors such fragmentation. However, common other networks, IBA based on assumption that will remain unchanged future. In this article, we provide method simulate occurrence species conservation concern protected areas, which could be used first-step approach assess potential impacts change upon areas. We use species-climate response surface models relate 12 biome-restricted African data at coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution then intersect grid model output outlines South IBAs. Our results demonstrate relatively simple technique provides good simulations species' basic for IBAs preference reduce over-prediction further improve predictive ability. This can scenarios highlight vulnerable allow practical recommendations made enhance minimize predicted change.

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