Investigation of learning and experience curves

摘要: The applicability of learning and experience curves for predicting future costs solar technologies is assessed, the major test case production economics heliostats. Alternative methods estimating cost reductions in systems manufacture are discussed, procedures using to predict outlined. Because adequate data often do not exist, histories analogous products/processes analyzed aggregated these surrogates estimated. If surrogate apply, they can be used estimate technology costs. steps involved generating estimates given. Second-generation glass-steel inflated-bubble heliostat design concepts, developed by MDAC GE, respectively, described; a costing scenario 25,000 units/yr detailed; analysis chosen; aggregate estimated; GE designs However, an approach that combines neoclassical function with learning-by-doing hypothesis needed yield relation compatible historical curve traditional economic theory.