System and method for forecasting uncertain events with adjustments for participants characteristics
作者： Kay-Yut Chen , Leslie R. Fine , Bernardo A. Huberman
DOI:
关键词: Process (engineering) 、 Event (probability theory) 、 Probability assessment 、 Data mining 、 Perfect information 、 Information market 、 Objective probability 、 Outcome (probability) 、 Engineering
摘要: The present invention is a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. Determining their individual characteristics and performing nonlinear aggregation predictions, provides probability assessment the outcome uncertain event. In one embodiment aggregated prediction compared to both objective its occurrence performance market as whole. embodiment, includes forecasting process comprising, running market, extracting participant characteristics, query process, aggregating results process. designed elicit participants include risk inclination ability analyze provided
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