The Parkfield, California, Prediction Experiment

摘要: Moderate-size earthquakes occurred on the Parkfield section of San Andreas fault in central California 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966. The earlier were similar to 1966 event, leading hypothesis a characteristic earthquake with recurring, recognizable source features. A simple recurrence model that explains most historic seismicity near implies next will occur within ten year time window centered 1987–1988. Prediction Experiment, designed monitor details final stages preparation process is underway. Observations reports anomalous aseismic slip preceding last constitute much basis for design Experiment; other considerations involve testing models deformation failure.