The physically-based model BREHOMES and its use in deriving scenarios for the energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of the UK housing stock

摘要: This paper describes a physically based model of the energy use housing stock (called BREHOMES) and explains how it has been used to develop two scenarios for carbon dioxide emissions. The general structure is outlined together with data on which relies. These have systematically collected several years, this allows important trends be identified. historical form basis that developed using model. One Reference scenario in paper) represents what likely happen if current continue. The other Efficiency scenario) could uptake rates efficiency measures were increase levels are feasible so far as they seen occur past. Neither attempts consider effects new technologies being introduced. Everything well-tried technology only. Thus, savings relative conservative estimates should possible compared trends. results indicate about 250 PJ year−1 (around 21 million tonnes CO2 year−1) by 2020. A cost-benefit analysis suggests these cost-effective all discount below 11%.