North Central Victorian Climate: Past, Present and Future

摘要: North central Victoria has experienced significant natural climate change over the past 20 000 years. At height of last ice age, region was colder by 5°C or more with uplands and slopes under subalpine vegetation. Modern vegetation patterns were not established until early Holocene. The first half Holocene wetter than today, while second affected a less stable influenced strengthening El Nino–Southern Oscillation. Climate immediately prior to European occupation may have been during historical period. Thus pre-European land surface influences on regional water balance different that which is generally assumed. period statistically homogenous, but drier periods. Modest warming began in mid 20th century, about 0.4°C per century from 1950 1996. From 1997, maximum temperature undergone upward step (p<0.01) 0.9°C. Rainfall decreased 19%, May–October rainfall undergoing (p=0.05) downward 2000. Maximum now non-stationary respect experiencing an trend consistent model projections. These changes are equal greater those projected for 2030, significantly affecting agriculture forestry, ecosystems, fire risk resources. Evidence pre-historic, historic projections future this suggest can often be abrupt, ‘stable’ periods showing considerable decadal variability. Prudent management would treat post 1996 as new baseline plan further changes.