Future population and human capital in heterogeneous India

摘要: Within the next decade India is expected to surpass China as world’s most populous country due still higher fertility and a younger population. Around 2025 each will be home around 1.5 billion people. demographically very heterogeneous with some rural illiterate populations having more than four children on average while educated urban women have fewer great differences between states. We show that population outlook greatly depends degree which this heterogeneity explicitly incorporated into projection model used. The conventional model, considering only age sex structures of at national level, results in lower projected same applied level states because over time high-fertility gain weight, thus applying rates opposite outcome from an explicit consideration education differentials proportion increases, leading predicted growth model. To comprehensively address issue, we develop five-dimensional India’s by state, rural/urban place residence, age, sex, impacts different degrees aggregation. also provide human capital scenarios for all Indian suggest rapidly catch up other developed countries Asia if recent pace expansion maintained.