Are you sure you're really telling the truth?

摘要: The core constructs of psychological assessment, reliability and validity, are shown to be incomplete lacking whenever base rates for the conditions under evaluation skew markedly from 50/50. Under such circumstances, rate information can exert a greater influence on diagnostic accuracy that is typically recognized among practitioners. so profound, conclusions based reliable valid test data often, more probably than not, wrong! This paper outlines our historical understanding "base fallacy", offers explanations its persistence in practice psychology. Recommendations self-monitoring policing profession offered, order neuropsychology might improve at comparable progress made similar fields medicine.