Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning

摘要: Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based full range its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both uncertainty warming pathways inherently long-term response ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections global mean regional temperatures exist, process-based assessments large-scale dynamical systems such as are still missing. Here we present an find that reduction more than 50 % strength by end 21 s t century is within likely under unmitigated change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear functions derived from comprehensive simulations with pathways, provide probability estimates changes year 2100. weakening 25 found very unlikely protection (RCP2.6), but for change. The method able reproduce modelled recovery caused climatic equilibration scenarios which provides confidence approach. Within this century, robust intensifies accounted adaptation strategies.