The analysis of two bi-millennial series: Tiber and Po river floods

摘要: The analysis of a long series hydrological events is very important in improving our knowledge the climate past. However, reliability each mathematical depends mainly on two factors: objectivity and homogeneity series. Objectivity definition event: if floods occurring at only one point river, where there are tens thousands witnesses interested documenting event because damage they caused, then can be considered objective. If, other hand, all possible that occurred over vast, scarcely inhabited area considered, whereby effect man varied during course centuries, it probable part have been registered passed on. Moreover, transformation territory including made interventions, so response river has changed with respect to meteorological forcing. This places limit analyses periodicity which not, reality, homogeneous. In this current paper, Tiber Rome Po its tributaries valley taken into consideration order illustrate opposite cases mentioned above. After brief history rivers, demonstrate limits homogeneity, secular trends will analysed. spectral recurrence time carried out by autoregressive method maximum entropy (MESA) seasonal distributions, interpret teleconnections between rivers their different same common climatic anomaly was found second half 15th century, reflected peaks also were studied.