Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: a scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape.

摘要: Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth sprawl that is putting stress on transportation system. Light rail denser transit-oriented development being considered as possible solutions. However, local agencies stakeholders concerned light may worsen housing affordability have questioned whether investment both dense redevelopment necessary to achieve community goals. We developed an integrated system dynamics model quantitatively explore outcomes of these land use options across multiple societal dimensions. The incorporates feedbacks among land, transportation, economic, equity, energy sectors. This paper uses results four scenarios, run between 2000 2040, address two main questions: (1) what role does play capturing socioeconomic benefits transit infrastructure investment? And (2) how do light-rail interact affect affordability? find combine synergistically better goals line, including economic development, mobility, compact growth. combined scenario, transportation-cost savings not sufficient offset rise costs. emphasize users input their own assumptions alternative scenarios. demonstrate spatially-aggregated systems models can complement traditional regional planning process.