Measuring uncertainty in complex decision analysis models.

摘要: Prediction models used in support of clinical and health policy decision making often need to consider the course a disease over an extended period time, draw evidence from broad knowledge base, including epidemiologic cohort case control studies, randomized trials, expert opinions, more. This paper is brief introduction these complex models, their relation Bayesian theory, tools typically describe uncertainties involved. Concepts are illustrated throughout via simplified tutorial.