THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLANDS AND WATERFOWL IN WESTERN CANADA: INCORPORATING CROPPING DECISIONS INTO A BIOECONOMIC MODEL
作者： PATRICK WITHEY , G. CORNELIS VAN KOOTEN
DOI: 10.1111/J.1939-7445.2012.00139.X
关键词: Wetland 、 Population 、 Water resource management 、 Global warming 、 Land use 、 Cropping 、 Ecology 、 Land use, land-use change and forestry 、 Climate change 、 Waterfowl 、 Environmental science
摘要: We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead a single state equation, has two equations representing population dynamics ducks amount wetlands. use estimate impact climate change on wetlands waterfowl, including direct effects as well land due biofuel policies aimed at mitigating change. The predicts that will reduce by 37–56% from historic levels. Land is expected between 35% 45% levels, whereas range reduction 2–11%, depending future scenario. This result indicates models neglect effect changes underestimate Further, loss geographically heterogeneous, with losses being largest Saskatchewan.
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