Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment

摘要: We model density-independent growth of an age- (or stage-) structured population, assuming that mortality and reproductive rates fluctuate as stationary time series. Analytical formulas are derived for the distribution to extinction cumulative probability before a certain time, which determined by initial age distribution, infinitesimal mean variance, mu sigma 2, diffusion approximation logarithm total population size. These parameters can be estimated from average life history pattern environmental fluctuations in vital rates. also show (conditional on event) depends magnitude but not sign mu. When small or moderate, gives accurate estimates probabilities obtained computer simulations.