The art of modelling range-shifting species

摘要: Summary 1. Species are shifting their ranges at an unprecedented rate through human transportation and environmental change. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) frequently applied for predicting potential future distributions of range-shifting species, despite these models’ assumptions that equilibrium with the environments used to train (fit) models, training data representative conditions which predicted. Here we explore modelling approaches aim minimize extrapolation errors assess predictions against prior biological knowledge. Our was promote methods appropriate species. 2. We use invasive cane toad in Australia, as example, under both current climate change scenarios. four SDM methods, trial weighting schemes choice background samples a state spread. also test two including information from mechanistic model. Throughout, graphical techniques understanding model behaviour reliability, extent extrapolation. 3. Predictions varied method treatment, particularly regard treatment absence data. Models performed similarly climatic deviated widely when transferred novel scenario. 4. The results highlight problems using SDMs extrapolation, demonstrate need tools understand predictions. have made progress this direction implemented exploratory new options free software, MaxEnt. show deliberately controlling fit integrating can enhance reliability correlative non-equilibrium settings. 5.Implications. biodiversity many regions world is experiencing threats created by invasions required management, but there acknowledged relatively few advances or overcoming these. presented manuscript accessible MaxEnt provide forward step.