Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

摘要: Extinction episodes, such as the anthropogenic one widely thought to be under way right now, result in a pruned tree of life. The possibility that further non-random extinctions across life could arise consequence climate change has been investigated quantitatively using series projections phylogenetic diversity European plants, birds and mammals. overall effect is thinning tree, with little loss diversity. However, there are differences responses northern southern species. For instance, France Spain more exposed losses than high-latitude high-altitude regions, where projected increase. Many species become vulnerable twenty-first-century changes1,2, consequent effects on If were not randomly distributed life, lead disproportionate evolutionary history3,4,5. Here we estimate consequences diversities plant, bird mammal assemblages Europe. Using consensus ensembles forecasts for 2020, 2050 2080 high-resolution trees, show vulnerability clusters weakly phylogenies. Such signal vulnerabilities does higher history expected model random extinctions. This because have neither fewer nor closer relatives remaining clades. Reductions will greater Europe, gains regions high latitude or altitude. offset by faces trend towards homogenization continent.