Nonperforming loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : causal analysis and macroeconomic implications

摘要: This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during economic and banking crises that affected a large number countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 1990s. Empirical analysis shows dramatic increase these extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between CFA non-CFA countries, substantially higher financial costs for latter sub-panel countries. The results also highlight strong causality growth, real exchange rate appreciation, interest rate, net margins, interbank consistent econometric analysis, which reveal significance macroeconomic microeconomic factors. is largely driven by volatility reflects vulnerability undiversified African economies, remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated show stability growth are associated declining level loans; whereas adverse shocks coupled cost capital lower margins rising scope loans. These supported long-term estimates derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models.