Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

摘要: Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, a wide range modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment possible impacts policies projected warming ranges. This article assesses atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, for these new using two reduced-complexity models. These result in 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 less than no-policy cases. The results from differences assumed stringency policy uncertainty our understanding system. Notably, an average minimum approximately 1.4 (with full 0.5-2.8 C) remains even most stringent stabilization analyzed here. value is substantially above previously estimated committed system inertia alone. show that, although ambitious efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed addition to impact residual warming.