Vulnerabilities and Co-evolutionary Dynamics in Morelia Michoacan, Mexico: A Case Study

摘要: This chapter suggests that human populations’ vulnerability to environmental hazards relates sustainability and complexity sciences, given the global, multi-disciplinary dynamic nature of issues currently faced by humanity. Among population affected disasters (being hydrometeorological, geological, biological, technological, even socioeconomic nature), poor are usually most [14, 79]. According The Munich Re group (2012), though from 2007–2010 losses due climatological were greater on first world countries, insurance payments also than in third where rarely exists. Not only lack basic infrastructure, education, goods services make more vulnerable disasters, poverty hinder response governments after each event. Human can be understood as a non-linear dynamical process among physical, economic, ecologic, sociocultural factors. Depending outcome them, these factors either contribute or societies’ sustainability. case study for this is Morelia, which capital city Michoacan State, Mexico. had 729,279 residents 2010, it extreme rainfall events, result flooding areas every raining season. There geological fault lines inhabited sections have been constructed. considers social, economic ecological variables, using metadata National Institute Geography Statistics (INEGI, [51, 53, 54]) Council Assessment Social Development Policies [26] information used develop complex co-evolutionary model understand relationships lead an increase mitigate case-study hazards. modeling focuses developing behavior algorithms dynamics four coevolving subsystems: government (local, state national), ecosystems, society, former three treated black boxes, later subdivided poor, no poor. From emerges stronger society. Co-evolution circular adaptation agents learn their with environment, being able influence environment willfully not. defined two meta-attributes: Fitness Flexibility, conditions sustainable system [62]. refers ability system-agent accomplish goals purposes was created, while flexibility denotes capacity agent generate options continue achieving such [61]. As fitness values modeled, needed cope increases well, reducing attributes describing agents’ inner meta-attribute are: health, dwelling, income, disability. external affecting represented by: access credit insurance, hazards, peace security conditions. To describe Flexibility studied income diversification, family agents. variables distribution educational diversification quality. coevolve other governmental entities provide health services, responsible obtaining spreading related subsystem economy, box, explains dynamics, including inequality population. All interactions framed ecosystem provides grows pressure suffers order supply becoming susceptible possible shocks. developed according described above. modeled has so far shown importance education both meta-attributes big role plays decrease levels.