Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of the USA: Understanding Complex Systems Mechanisms through Modeling

摘要: Alpine, subalpine and boreal tree species, of low genetic diversity adapted to optimal temperatures, are vulnerable the warming effects global climate change. The accurate prediction these species’ distributions in response change is critical for effective planning management. goal this research predict on distribution red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), eastern USA. Climate is, however, conflated with other environmental factors, making its assessment a complex systems problem which indirect significant causality. Predictions were made by linking growth simulation model, model (ARIM.SIM), GIS spatial habitat (ARIM.HAB). ARIM.SIM quantifies direct interactions between revealing latter be dominant. ARIM.HAB spatially distributes simulations under assumption that greater reflects higher probabilities presence. predicts future suitability based predictions three air pollution scenarios: 10% increase, no decrease. Results show suitable habitats shrink most when increases. Higher temperatures cause losses low-elevation habitats. Increased precipitation produce acid rain, causes loss both low- high-elevation general will contraction at lower elevations GSMNP, exacerbated increased pollution. These provide valuable information understanding potential impacts spatiotemporal GSMNP.