Effects of predation by introduced mammals and mortality due to severe floods on population viability of the endangered Blue Duck (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos)

摘要: Predation by introduced species and anthropogenic climate change now are two major threats to avifaunae worldwide. We developed an age-structured, stochastic simulation model perform a population viability analysis for the Blue Duck, or Whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), endangered waterfowl endemic upland rivers of New Zealand. Demographic responses six predator-control flood-frequency scenarios were assessed examine projected trends in long-term dynamics viability. A baseline abundance at current rates predation mammals mortality due severe flood events indicated that study has only limited probability persistence during next 100 years. Importantly, we found additive effects losses rising frequency floods (as predicted general circulation models) increased extinction risk 69%. Our demonstrates urgent need heightened control invasive predators conservation areas, as well informed consideration future changes regional patterns when planning management actions other similarly threatened riparian species.