Integrating Models and Data to Estimate the Structural Reliability of Utility Poles During Hurricanes

摘要: Utility systems such as power and communication regularly experience significant damage loss of service during hurricanes. A primary mode for these is failure wooden utility poles that support conductors lines. In this article, we present an approach combining structural reliability models with observed data on pole performance past This approach, based Bayesian updating, starts from imperfect but informative prior updates data. We consider flexural foundation mechanisms in the prior, acknowledging are incomplete, still informative, subset possible show how a model-based can be updated data, using Hurricane Katrina case study. The results integration estimates then offer more starting point system estimation hurricane conditions.